Norway Probes Suspicious Nobel Peace Prize Betting Activity on Polymarket
Norwegian authorities are investigating unusual betting patterns on Polymarket tied to the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement. Three previously inactive accounts collectively profited $90,000 after accurately predicting Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado as the winner.
The suspicious activity occurred on October 9, 2025—11 hours before the official announcement—when Machado's odds surged from 3.6% to 70% within hours. Account "dirtycup" generated $30,000 profit from a $70,000 wager, while two other newly created accounts earned $53,500 and $85,000 respectively.
Notably, these bets were placed days after the Nobel Committee's October 6 final decision, raising concerns about potential information leaks from the highly secretive selection process. Kristian Berg Harpviken of the Norwegian Nobel Institute suggested espionage rather than a leak may explain the timing.
